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A Royal Flush: My Oscar Predictions

2011 Oscars

Will Win/Should Win

I reserve the right to like two films/people for a category and leave it as a “pick-em.”  Also, I have not seen every nominated film (not for a lack of trying).  I’ll just base it on what I know to be the buzz about said pictures, just like members of the Academy Awards are apt to do.

Let’s start with ALL of the tech awards (Visual Effects, Sound, etc.):

Will Win: Inception

Should Win: Inception

No question this mind-bender deserves some sort of attention.  It will, however, have to settle for categories like this, where it is an easy choice over films like Iron Man 2 (?) and Alice in Wonderland.  I will say, for sound mixing, it would not be a wrong move to throw that statue at The Social Network.  All of those conversations, in “live” locations, is worth it alone.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit

Should Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit

This falls under the “about damned time” category.  Deakins is a longtime talent, called upon to lens new classic film after new classic film (Fargo, hello!).  How he’s NOT yet one an Academy Award by now is a real mystery.  As one fan of the movie nicely suggested, the very first scene of True Grit was enough to seal the Oscar deal for Mr. Deakins.

Best Editing

Will Win: Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan

Should Win: Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan

This pic comes down to the master, Alfred Hitchcock.  Whether you like Black Swan or not, there’s no debating the fact that it’s a balls-out homage to Hitch (save for the lesbian scenes, which he probably would have skipped).  The shots moved constantly in this film and with all those full-length mirrors, chopping this picture up was probably a hell of a challenge.  If there were a second in this category, it would have to be Tariq Anwar for The King’s Speech.  The creative shots in Speech (lots of empty space) probably turned a simple job into a very challenging one.  Possible Upset Special: Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter for The Social Network.

Best Original Score

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech

Should Win: Hans Zimmer, Inception

Desplat took the Speech gig for little money as a “side” job during his Harry Potter work.  Why?  He loved the story.  And who doesn’t?  The music is very simple, with melodic piano pieces.  It closes (as does the film) with some classical themes.  Worthy?  Sure.  But the soundtrack to Inception covers an amazing variety of themes.  Moody, dark, fast-paced…Zimmer’s score perfectly matches the tone of the film.  By the end, the theme sounds like something out of a sixties James Bond movie.  In short, it sounds like Oscar-favorite, the late John Barry (who just died a few weeks ago).  It’s almost as perfect a coupling of film and music as your apt to find this year or any other.

Best Original Song

Will Win: We Belong Together, Randy Newman

Should Win: None

All of this year’s nominees suck.  And most people don’t even know them.  It’ll come down to who Oscar voters “recognize.”  Hell, there isn’t even a “It’s Hard Out Here For Pimp” song to rally around.  If forced to pick, I’d go with the Country Strong tune, only because a local, Hillary Lindsey, co-wrote it.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Toy Story 3

Should Win: Toy Story 3

Even, EVEN, if TS3 sucked (which it did not), it would win this category.  Pixar owns this category.  And Toy Story 3 was the perfect capper to a wonderful series of films.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: Inside Job

Should Win: *Waiting For Superman

*Not nominated

Inside Job is the kind of “lets go after the rich” kind of movie Hollywood liberals love to rally around.  It’s a well-liked piece that shows us just how corporate greed destroyed our economy.  Exit Through The Gift Shop, about some bizarre vandal cum artist could very well surprise, but I doubt it.  Waiting for Superman deserves this award.  I don’t know why it wasn’t nominated, but it’s a painful lesson on what’s wrong with education in America and a stark warning that if people don’t act now, it’s just going to get worse.  Make sure you see it, Oscar gold or not.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Should Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

A “stone-cold, lead-pipe lock.”  Sorkin was all but guaranteed this honor when he typed “Fade to black…end credits.”  This rapid-fire movie benefits in large part from the words given these actors.  It’s a dialogue movie and Sorkin (Sports Night, West Wing) is the master.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech

Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Inception

Nolan’s Inception, is the stuff of (pardon the pun) dreams.  Deep, richly-layered storytelling that requires some serious work.  It’s a thinking man’s story and that’s WITH the visuals.  Imagine trying to understand all of this with just words on a paper.  Inception was original in ways that simply can’t be topped by the other noms.  However, Seidler’s “Speech” is certainly worthy.  A film about stammering, the dialogue-rich script finds a way to show us this reluctant king’s struggle, while simultaneously giving us great moments of humor and sorrow between its two leads.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win:  Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit/Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

This is a real tough one.  I have NOT seen The Fighter.  As such, I can only hazard a guess based on the general belief that Leo will win.  I will say that having seen her in Frozen River, there is no question she’s not a worthy actress.  If I were handing out the statues, my choice would be different.  I am torn between two who should win.  Steinfeld should be nominated as Best Actress.  That kid did an unbelievable job going toe-to-toe with “The Dude!”  Certainly worthy.  As for Carter, I was never really a super fan of hers.  But seeing her play this role (non-quirky) has really changed my tune.  She was not just the “supportive” wife in the background.  She played the Queen ‘Mum’ with the conviction, authority and strength that she was known for.  I don’t know, but I think a “Speech” tide might just wrap her up too.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Should Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Again, haven’t seen The Fighter.  Bale is one of our best actors (when he’s not coughing up dialogue as a throaty Batman).  I’m certainly not surprised by his being picked as the winner.  I can only assume he has the same kind of effect Geoffrey Rush had in Speech - where you couldn’t keep your eyes off of him while on screen.  I just think Rush is one of our best actors working.  He makes you LOVE Lionel Logue.  Most of the witty lines come from him, yet he’s also so compassionate that you certainly understand why a King would feel comfortable talking about childhood with this man.  I really want to see Rush on stage for this one.

Best Actress

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

This one comes with a big “but.”  My hands typed Portman’s name under “will win.”  But watch out, I wouldn’t be surprised to another young actress at the podium.  Michelle Williams apparently did a wonderful job in Blue Valentine (haven’t seen it) but I get the impression that she may this year’s annual “surprise.”  As for Portman, she’s certainly worthy.  It’s like watching one of Hitchcock’s characters unravel as the world around them falls apart.  She did a terrific job and is the best bet to win.

Best Actor

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Should Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Again, we’re talking a “lock.”  He’s fast becoming one of our best actors working.  His King George was both painful to watch and inspiring.  Firth captured the frustration one might have struggling with a stammer or stutter, without forcing pity.  When he first hears the recording Logue made for him, his eyes say it all.  As far as I’m concerned, he earned it during a quiet moment with Rush as they discussed his childhood.  As touching a scene as any you would have seen in 2010.

Best Director

Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

It’s like trying to pick what you want at the ice-cream shop.  Tom Cooper made a wonderful “little” film with The King’s Speech.  He’s definitely Oscar-worthy.  However, because Network may likely lose the top prize, I suspect voters will split their vote to recognize both films.  With it’s many locations, hopping between depositions and flashbacks, Fincher’s feat is impressive.  The film was sharp and he was able to get the best out of his actor’s and that Oscar-winning script.

Best Picture

Will Win: The King’s Speech

Should Win: The King’s Speech

I remember walking out of “The Social Network” and declaring its Oscar victory “guaranteed.”  So what happened?  When I think of films like Network, stuff like All The President’s Men come to mind.  They are movies that define more than a year, they define a decade.  They are part of the zeitgeist, while capturing it.  In twenty years, people will still look at The Social Network as the definitive film of this “social networking era.”  So what happened?  I think there’s two things at play here.  First, Academy voters love sweeping, royal-themed British films.  So you’ve got that going for it.  Secondly, and this is what has brought me around to “Speech,” a film must have heart to claim the top prize more times than not.  Movies like “President’s Men” are never forgotten and easily come to mind when talking about a decade’s best.  But it’s not known for wrapping itself up in your heart and making you feel something special.  Not in the way most “Best Pictures” are.  Go back to 1955’s “Marty.”  It’s a cheesy love story, but at its soul you can’t help but want to see it succeed.  “Speech” is that kind of movie.  Three different actors and a little less of a script…who knows?  People could mistake it for a Lifetime movie-of-the-week.  But you don’t.  Everyone who has seen it (and not gone in cynically wanting it to fail) can’t help but be moved by the relationship between this king and a common man.  Or the king and his adoring queen.  I’ve seen it three times and it’s still that good.  Is “Network” a better film?  Yes.  But it has zero heart and the protagonist is an ass.  A tough sell.  “The King’s Speech” is not going to be a movie you remember as readily in twenty years as something like “The Social Network.”  But it is going to go into the history books as 2010’s Best Picture this Sunday.  And no matter what the haters say, it’s worthy enough to wear this year’s crown.

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